Three shifts to plan for in 2026
01 · Identity is the new perimeter — and it is AI-tested
Phishing kits with LLM-driven voice, real-time MFA fatigue orchestration, and OAuth abuse have collapsed the gap between "credential stolen" and "tenant compromised". ITDR coverage is no longer optional.
02 · AI features ship faster than AI red teams
Most LLM features in production today were never adversarially tested. Prompt injection chained with tool use is the new RCE — and it routes around the WAF.
03 · Detection engineering has compounding returns
Static rules are now decisively outpaced. Programs that invest in behavioural detection see MTTD fall by an order of magnitude within two quarters.
2026 thesis: the cost of attack is collapsing. The cost of defence has not. Adaptive defense is the only path that compounds.